Establishment of differential diagnostic model for COVID-19 and influenza A based on laboratory indicators and its clinical significance. TT -.

Objective:To explore the differences in laboratory indicators test results of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and influenza A and to establish a differential diagnosis model for the two diseases, and to clarify the clinical significance of the model for distinguishing the two diseases. Methods :A total of 56 common COVID-19 patients and 54 influenza A patients were enrolled , and 24 common COVID-19 patients and 30 influenza A patients were used for model validation. The average values of the laboratory indicators of the patients 5 d after admission were calculated,and the elastic network model and the stepwise Logistic regression model were used to screen the indicators for identifying COVID-19 and influenza A. Elastic network models were used for the first round of selection,in which the optimal cutoff of lambda was chosen by performing 10-fold cross validations. With different random seeds,the elastic net models were fit for 200 times to select the high-frequency indexes ( frequency>90% ). A Logistic regression model with AIC as the selection criterions was used in the second round of screening uses;a nomogram was used to represent the final model;an independent data were used as an external validation set,and the area under the curve (AUC) of the validation set were calculate to evaluate the predictive the performance of the model. Results:After the first round of screening, 16 laboratory indicators were selected as the high-frequency indicators. After the second round of screening,albumin/ globulin (A/G),total bilirubin (TBIL) and erythrocyte volume (HCT) were identified as the final indicators. The model had good predictive performance , and the AUC of the verification set was 0. 844 (95% CI:0. 747-0. 941). Conclusion:A differential diagnosis model for COVID-19 and influenza A based on laboratory indicators is successfully established,and it will help clinical and timely diagnosis of both diseases.Copyright © 2022 Jilin University Press. All rights reserved.

A Nomogram Model for Predicting the Polyphenol Content of Pu-Erh Tea.

To investigate different contents of pu-erh tea polyphenol affected by abiotic stress, this research determined the contents of tea polyphenol in teas produced by Yuecheng, a Xishuangbanna-based tea producer in Yunnan Province. The study drew a preliminary conclusion that eight factors, namely, altitude, nickel, available cadmium, organic matter, N, P, K, and alkaline hydrolysis nitrogen, had a considerable influence on tea polyphenol content with a combined analysis of specific altitudes and soil composition. The nomogram model constructed with three variables, altitude, organic matter, and P, screened by LASSO regression showed that the AUC of the training group and the validation group were respectively 0.839 and 0.750, and calibration curves were consistent. A visualized prediction system for the content of pu-erh tea polyphenol based on the nomogram model was developed and its accuracy rate, supported by measured data, reached 80.95%. This research explored the change of tea polyphenol content under abiotic stress, laying a solid foundation for further predictions for and studies on the quality of pu-erh tea and providing some theoretical scientific basis.

Risk factors for disease severity among children with Covid-19: a clinical prediction model.

BACKGROUND: Children account for a significant proportion of COVID-19 hospitalizations, but data on the predictors of disease severity in children are limited. We aimed to identify risk factors associated with moderate/severe COVID-19 and develop a nomogram for predicting children with moderate/severe COVID-19. METHODS: We identified children ≤ 12 years old hospitalized for COVID-19 across five hospitals in Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, from 1 January 2021 to 31 December 2021 from the state's pediatric COVID-19 case registration system. The primary outcome was the development of moderate/severe COVID-19 during hospitalization. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent risk factors for moderate/severe COVID-19. A nomogram was constructed to predict moderate/severe disease. The model performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. RESULTS: A total of 1,717 patients were included. After excluding the asymptomatic cases, 1,234 patients (1,023 mild cases and 211 moderate/severe cases) were used to develop the prediction model. Nine independent risk factors were identified, including the presence of at least one comorbidity, shortness of breath, vomiting, diarrhea, rash, seizures, temperature on arrival, chest recessions, and abnormal breath sounds. The nomogram's sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and AUC for predicting moderate/severe COVID-19 were 58·1%, 80·5%, 76·8%, and 0·86 (95% CI, 0·79 - 0·92) respectively. CONCLUSION: Our nomogram, which incorporated readily available clinical parameters, would be useful to facilitate individualized clinical decisions.

American College of Nuclear Medicine (ACNM) 2022 ACNM Annual Meeting Abstracts

The proceedings contain 91 papers. The topics discussed include: the new approach of COVID-19 patients with deteriorating respiratory functions using perfusion SPECT/CT imaging;increasing interest in nuclear medicine: evaluation of an educational workshop;cost-benefit analysis recommends further utilization of cardiac PET/MR for sarcoidosis evaluation;development of a nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of differentiated thyroid carcinoma patients based on a thyroid cancer database from a tertiary hospital in China;multi-center validation of radiomic models in new data using ComBat-based harmonization of features;bone scan with Tc99m-MDP, the missing link in the initial staging of muscle-invasive bladder carcinoma;and comparison of absorbed doses to kidneys calculated employing three time points and employing two time points in neuroendocrine patients undergoing Lu-177 DOTATATE therapy using planar images.

A Nomogram for Predicting Delayed Viral Shedding in Non-Severe SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Infection.

Purpose: The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 has emerged as a significant global concern, characterized by its rapid transmission and resistance to existing treatments and vaccines. However, the specific hematological and biochemical factors that may impact the clearance of Omicron variant infection remain unclear. The present study aimed to identify easily accessible laboratory markers that are associated with prolonged virus shedding in non-severe patients with COVID-19 caused by the Omicron variant. Patients and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 882 non-severe COVID-19 patients who were diagnosed with the Omicron variant in Shanghai between March and June 2022. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used for feature selection and dimensional reduction, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to construct a nomogram for predicting the risk of prolonged SARS-CoV-2 RNA positivity lasting for more than 7 days. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curves were used to assess predictive discrimination and accuracy, with bootstrap validation. Results: Patients were randomly divided into derivation (70%, n = 618) and validation (30%, n = 264) cohorts. Optimal independent markers for prolonged viral shedding time (VST) over 7 days were identified as Age, C-reactive protein (CRP), platelet count, leukocyte count, lymphocyte count, and eosinophil count. These factors were subsequently incorporated into the nomogram utilizing bootstrap validation. The area under the curve (AUC) in the derivation (0.761) and validation (0.756) cohorts indicated good discriminative ability. The calibration curve showed good agreement between the nomogram-predicted and actual patients with VST over 7 days. Conclusion: Our study confirmed six factors associated with delayed VST in non-severe SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection and constructed a Nomogram which may assist non-severely affected patients to better estimate the appropriate length of self-isolation and optimize their self-management strategies.

Impact of the time elapsed between prostate biopsy and surgery on the accuracy of nomograms predicting lymph node invasion in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer.

We aimed to investigate whether the performance characteristics of available nomograms predicting lymph node invasion (LNI) in prostate cancer patients undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP) change according to the time elapsed between diagnosis and surgery. We identified 816 patients who underwent RP with extended pelvic lymph node dissection (ePLND) after combined prostate biopsy at 6 referral centers. We plotted the accuracy (ROC-derived area under the curve [AUC]) of each Briganti nomogram according to the time elapsed between biopsy ad RP. We then tested whether discrimination of the nomograms improved after accounting for the time elapsed between biopsy ad RP. The median time between biopsy and RP was 3 months. The LNI rate was 13%. The discrimination of each nomogram decreased with increasing time elapsed between biopsy and surgery, where the AUC of the 2019 Briganti nomogram was 88% vs. 70% for men undergoing surgery <2 vs. >6 months from the biopsy. The addition of the time elapsed between biopsy ad RP improved the accuracy of all available nomograms (P < 0.003), with the Briganti 2019 nomogram showing the highest discrimination. Clinicians should be aware that the discrimination of available nomograms decreases according to the time elapsed between diagnosis and surgery. The indication of ePLND should be carefully evaluated in men below the LNI cut-off who had a diagnosis more than 6 months before RP. This has important implications when considering the longer waiting lists related to the impact of COVID-19 on healthcare systems.

A Predictive Nomogram for Predicting Improved Clinical Outcome Probability in Patients with COVID-19 in Zhejiang Province, China.

The aim of this research was to develop a quantitative method for clinicians to predict the probability of improved prognosis in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Data on 104 patients admitted to hospital with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection from 10 January 2020 to 26 February 2020 were collected. Clinical information and laboratory findings were collected and compared between the outcomes of improved patients and non-improved patients. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistics regression model and two-way stepwise strategy in the multivariate logistics regression model were used to select prognostic factors for predicting clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients. The concordance index (C-index) was used to assess the discrimination of the model, and internal validation was performed through bootstrap resampling. A novel predictive nomogram was constructed by incorporating these features. Of the 104 patients included in the study (median age 55 years), 75 (72.1%) had improved short-term outcomes, while 29 (27.9%) showed no signs of improvement. There were numerous differences in clinical characteristics and laboratory findings between patients with improved outcomes and patients without improved outcomes. After a multi-step screening process, prognostic factors were selected and incorporated into the nomogram construction, including immunoglobulin A (IgA), C-reactive protein (CRP), creatine kinase (CK), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), and interaction between CK and APACHE II. The C-index of our model was 0.962 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.931-0.993) and still reached a high value of 0.948 through bootstrapping validation. A predictive nomogram we further established showed close performance compared with the ideal model on the calibration plot and was clinically practical according to the decision curve and clinical impact curve. The nomogram we constructed is useful for clinicians to predict improved clinical outcome probability for each COVID-19 patient, which may facilitate personalized counselling and treatment.

Follow-up in breast cancer care: guidelines and individual risks

The aim of this study was to investigate how breast cancer follow-up in the Netherlands changed during the COVID-19 pandemic, compared to 2018-2019, and to what extent follow-up during the pandemic corresponded to the patient risk of recurrence. During the early phase of the pandemic the Dutch Society for Surgical Oncology (NVCO) issued a report with recommendations on how follow-up could be postponed, as a guidance for the pandemic, based on a low, intermediate or high risk of recurrence. In this study we investigated to what extent this advice was followed. A dataset of 33160 women diagnosed with primary invasive breast cancer between January of 2017 and July of 2021 was selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR) and Dutch Hospital Data (DHD). The pandemic, 2020 and weeks 1-32 of 2021, was divided into six periods (A to F), based on the number of hospitalized COVID patients in the Netherlands. The five-year risk of locoregional recurrence (LRR) was determined for each patient with the INFLUENCE nomogram. The LRR risk was compared to the risk groups from the NVCO report with a Kruskal-Wallis test. The percentage of patients who received a mammogram during period A to F was compared to the same periods of 2018-2019 with a chisquared test. Correlation between the LRR risk, and if patients had a mammogram, was investigated with logistic regression. This analysis was repeated separately for the risk groups. Correlation between the LRR risk, and time intervals between surgery and the first and second mammogram was analyzed using cox proportional hazard models, this was also repeated for the risk groups. There was a significant difference in LRR risk between the NVCO risk groups. In the low-risk group (n=7673), 86 patients (1.1%) had a risk >5%. In the intermediate risk group (n=19197), 18364 patients (95.7%) had a risk of < 5%, and 65 patients (0.34%) had a risk of >10%. In the high-risk group (n=2674), 2365 patients (88.4%) had a risk < 10%. The percentage of patients who received a mammogram was significantly lower in periods B to F of the pandemic. Logistic regression showed a negative correlation between the risk of LRR and if patients had a mammogram in 2020 (OR 0.93) and 2021 (OR 0.93). There was also a negative correlation between the risk groups and mammography in 2020 (OR 0.92 for intermediate and 0.80 for high), and for the risk groups and mammography in 2021 (OR 0.98 for intermediate and 0.95 for high). There was no significant impact of LRR risk, or risk group, on time intervals between mammograms. During the pandemic, patients with a higher LRR risk, or a higher risk according to NVCO advice, had lower odds of having a mammogram. If the advice would have been followed, in 0.5% of the patients scheduled for follow-up, the recommendation was to postpone in contrast to a high estimation of the individual risk. For 62.7%, a follow-up was recommended, despite a low estimated individuals risk. Because the number of high-risk patients is relatively low, individual risk prediction could be supportive, in case of future restrictions. This way the high-risk patients can be identified and prioritized for follow-up, and can also be encouraged to come to the hospital.

Multi-omics and immune cells' profiling of COVID-19 patients for ICU admission prediction: in silico analysis and an integrated machine learning-based approach in the framework of Predictive, Preventive, and Personalized Medicine.

Background: Intensive care unit admission (ICUA) triage has been urgent need for solving the shortage of ICU beds, during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) surge. In silico analysis and integrated machine learning (ML) approach, based on multi-omics and immune cells (ICs) profiling, might provide solutions for this issue in the framework of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine (PPPM). Methods: Multi-omics was used to screen the synchronous differentially expressed protein-coding genes (SDEpcGs), and an integrated ML approach to develop and validate a nomogram for prediction of ICUA. Finally, the independent risk factor (IRF) with ICs profiling of the ICUA was identified. Results: Colony-stimulating factor 1 receptor (CSF1R) and peptidase inhibitor 16 (PI16) were identified as SDEpcGs, and each fold change (FCij) of CSF1R and PI16 was selected to develop and validate a nomogram to predict ICUA. The area under curve (AUC) of the nomogram was 0.872 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.707 to 0.950) on the training set, and 0.822 (95% CI: 0.659 to 0.917) on the testing set. CSF1R was identified as an IRF of ICUA, expressed in and positively correlated with monocytes which had a lower fraction in COVID-19 ICU patients. Conclusion: The nomogram and monocytes could provide added value to ICUA prediction and targeted prevention, which are cost-effective platform for personalized medicine of COVID-19 patients. The log2fold change (log2FC) of the fraction of monocytes could be monitored simply and economically in primary care, and the nomogram offered an accurate prediction for secondary care in the framework of PPPM. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-023-00317-5.

The m7G Modification Level and Immune Infiltration Characteristics in Patients with COVID-19.

Purpose: The 7-methylguanosine (m7G)-related genes were used to identify the clinical severity and prognosis of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to identify possible therapeutic targets. Patients and Methods: The GSE157103 dataset provides the transcriptional spectrum and clinical information required to analyze the expression of m7G-related genes and the disease subtypes. R language was applied for immune infiltration analysis, functional enrichment analysis, and nomogram model construction. Results: Most m7G-related genes were up-regulated in COVID-19 and were closely related to immune cell infiltration. Disease subtypes were grouped using a clustering algorithm. It was found that the m7G-cluster B was associated with higher immune infiltration, lower mechanical ventilation, lower intensive care unit (ICU) status, higher ventilator-free days, and lower m7G scores. Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) analysis showed that differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between m7G-cluster A and B were enriched in viral infection and immune-related aspects, including COVID-19 infection; Th17, Th1, and Th2 cell differentiation, and human T-cell leukemia virus 1 infection. Finally, through machine learning, six disease characteristic genes, NUDT4B, IFIT5, LARP1, EIF4E, LSM1, and NUDT4, were screened and used to develop a nomogram model to estimate disease risk. Conclusion: The expression of most m7G genes was higher in COVID-19 patients compared with that in non-COVID-19 patients. The m7G-cluster B showed higher immune infiltration and milder symptoms. The predictive nomogram based on the six m7G genes can be used to accurately assess risk.

A Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis of Advanced Schistosomiasis japonica in Dongzhi County-A Case Study.

BACKGROUNDS: Advanced schistosomiasis is the late stage of schistosomiasis, seriously jeopardizing the quality of life or lifetime of infected people. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting mortality of patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica, taking Dongzhi County of China as a case study. METHOD: Data of patients with advanced schistosomiasis japonica were collected from Dongzhi Schistosomiasis Hospital from January 2019 to July 2022. Data of patients were randomly divided into a training set and validation set with a ratio of 7:3. Candidate variables, including survival outcomes, demographics, clinical features, laboratory examinations, and ultrasound examinations, were analyzed and selected by LASSO logistic regression for the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed by concordance index (C-index), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). The calibration of the nomogram was evaluated by the calibration plots, while clinical benefit was evaluated by decision curve and clinical impact curve analysis. RESULTS: A total of 628 patients were included in the final analysis. Atrophy of the right liver, creatinine, ascites level III, N-terminal procollagen III peptide, and high-density lipoprotein were selected as parameters for the nomogram model. The C-index, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of the nomogram were 0.97 (95% [CI]: [0.95-0.99]), 0.78 (95% [CI]: [0.64-0.87]), 0.97 (95% [CI]: [0.94-0.98]), 0.78 (95% [CI]: [0.64-0.87]), 0.97 (95% [CI]: [0.94-0.98]) in the training set; and 0.98 (95% [CI]: [0.94-0.99]), 0.86 (95% [CI]: [0.64-0.96]), 0.97 (95% [CI]: [0.93-0.99]), 0.79 (95% [CI]: [0.57-0.92]), 0.98 (95% [CI]: [0.94-0.99]) in the validation set, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the model fitted well between the prediction and actual observation in both the training set and validation set. The decision and the clinical impact curves showed that the nomogram had good clinical use for discriminating patients with high risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: A nomogram was developed to predict prognosis of advanced schistosomiasis. It could guide clinical staff or policy makers to formulate intervention strategies or efficiently allocate resources against advanced schistosomiasis.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict failure of 14-day negative nucleic acid conversion in adults with non-severe COVID-19 during the Omicron surge: a retrospective multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: With the variability in emerging data, guidance on the isolation duration for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to the Omicron variant is controversial. This study aimed to determine the predictors of prolonged viral RNA shedding in patients with non-severe COVID-19 and construct a nomogram to predict patients at risk of 14-day PCR conversion failure. METHODS: Adult patients with non-severe COVID-19 were enrolled from three hospitals of eastern China in Spring 2022. Viral shedding time (VST) was defined as either the day of the first positive test or the day of symptom onset, whichever was earlier, to the date of the first of two consecutively negative PCR tests. Patients from one hospital (Cohort I, n = 2033) were randomly grouped into training and internal validation sets. Predictors of 14-day PCR conversion failure were identified and a nomogram was developed by multivariable logistic regression using the training dataset. Two hospitals (Cohort II, n = 1596) were used as an external validation set to measure the performance of this nomogram. RESULTS: Of the 2033 patients from Cohort I, the median VST was 13.0 (interquartile range: 10.0‒16.0) days; 716 (35.2%) lasted > 14 days. In the training set, increased age [per 10 years, odds ratio (OR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15‒1.45, P < 0.001] and high Charlson comorbidity index (OR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.08‒1.46, P = 0.004) were independent risk factors for VST > 14 days, whereas full or boosted vaccination (OR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.42‒0.95, P = 0.028) and antiviral therapy (OR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.31‒0.96, P = 0.040) were protective factors. These predictors were used to develop a nomogram to predict VST > 14 days, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.73 in the training set (AUC, 0.74 in internal validation set; 0.76 in external validation set). CONCLUSIONS: Older age, increasing comorbidities, incomplete vaccinations, and lack of antiviral therapy are risk factors for persistent infection with Omicron variant for > 14 days. A nomogram based on these predictors could be used as a prediction tool to guide treatment and isolation strategies.

Factors affecting prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection and development and validation of predictive nomograms.

Prolonged severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has received much attention since it is associated with mortality and is hypothesized as the cause of long COVID-19 and the emergence of a new variant of concerns. However, a prediction model for the accurate prediction of prolonged infection is still lacking. A total of 2938 confirmed patients with COVID-19 diagnosed by positive reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction tests were recruited retrospectively. This study cohort was divided into a training set (70% of study patients; n = 2058) and a validation set (30% of study patients; n = 880). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were utilized to identify predictors for prolonged infection. Model 1 included only preadmission variables, whereas Model 2 also included after-admission variables. Nomograms based on variables of Model 1 and Model 2 were built for clinical use. The efficiency of nomograms was evaluated by using the area under the curve, calibration curves, and concordance indexes (C-index). Independent predictors of prolonged infection included in Model 1 were: age ≥75 years, chronic kidney disease, chronic lung disease, partially or fully vaccinated, and booster. Additional independent predictors in Model 2 were: treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir more than 5 days after diagnosis and glucocorticoid. The inclusion of after-admission variables in the model slightly improved the discriminatory power (C-index in the training cohort: 0.721 for Model 1 and 0.737 for Model 2; in the validation cohort: 0.699 for Model 1 and 0.719 for Model 2). In our study, we developed and validated predictive models based on readily available variables of preadmission and after-admission for predicting prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection of patients with COVID-19.

Development and validation of a nomogram for the early prediction of acute kidney injury in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Introduction: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a prevalent complication of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and is closely linked with a poorer prognosis. The aim of this study was to develop and validate an easy-to-use and accurate early prediction model for AKI in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Methods: Data from 480 COVID-19-positive patients (336 in the training set and 144 in the validation set) were obtained from the public database of the Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression method and multivariate logistic regression were used to screen potential predictive factors to construct the prediction nomogram. Receiver operating curves (ROC), calibration curves, as well as decision curve analysis (DCA) were adopted to assess the effectiveness of the nomogram. The prognostic value of the nomogram was also examined. Results: A predictive nomogram for AKI was developed based on arterial oxygen saturation, procalcitonin, C-reactive protein, glomerular filtration rate, and the history of coronary artery disease. In the training set, the nomogram produced an AUC of 0.831 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.774-0.889) with a sensitivity of 85.2% and a specificity of 69.9%. In the validation set, the nomogram produced an AUC of 0.810 (95% CI: 0.737-0.871) with a sensitivity of 77.4% and a specificity of 78.8%. The calibration curve shows that the nomogram exhibited excellent calibration and fit in both the training and validation sets. DCA suggested that the nomogram has promising clinical effectiveness. In addition, the median length of stay (m-LS) for patients in the high-risk group for AKI (risk score ≥ 0.122) was 14.0 days (95% CI: 11.3-16.7 days), which was significantly longer than 8.0 days (95% CI: 7.1-8.9 days) for patients in the low-risk group (risk score <0.122) (hazard ratio (HR): 1.98, 95% CI: 1.55-2.53, p < 0.001). Moreover, the mortality rate was also significantly higher in the high-risk group than that in the low-risk group (20.6 vs. 2.9%, odd ratio (OR):8.61, 95%CI: 3.45-21.52). Conclusions: The newly constructed nomogram model could accurately identify potential COVID-19 patients who may experience AKI during hospitalization at the very beginning of their admission and may be useful for informing clinical prognosis.

Machine learning models to predict the maximum severity of COVID-19 based on initial hospitalization record.

Background: As the worldwide spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues for a long time, early prediction of the maximum severity is required for effective treatment of each patient. Objective: This study aimed to develop predictive models for the maximum severity of hospitalized COVID-19 patients using artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) algorithms. Methods: The medical records of 2,263 COVID-19 patients admitted to 10 hospitals in Daegu, Korea, from February 18, 2020, to May 19, 2020, were comprehensively reviewed. The maximum severity during hospitalization was divided into four groups according to the severity level: mild, moderate, severe, and critical. The patient's initial hospitalization records were used as predictors. The total dataset was randomly split into a training set and a testing set in a 2:1 ratio, taking into account the four maximum severity groups. Predictive models were developed using the training set and were evaluated using the testing set. Two approaches were performed: using four groups based on original severity levels groups (i.e., 4-group classification) and using two groups after regrouping the four severity level into two (i.e., binary classification). Three variable selection methods including randomForestSRC were performed. As AI/ML algorithms for 4-group classification, GUIDE and proportional odds model were used. For binary classification, we used five AI/ML algorithms, including deep neural network and GUIDE. Results: Of the four maximum severity groups, the moderate group had the highest percentage (1,115 patients; 49.5%). As factors contributing to exacerbation of maximum severity, there were 25 statistically significant predictors through simple analysis of linear trends. As a result of model development, the following three models based on binary classification showed high predictive performance: (1) Mild vs. Above Moderate, (2) Below Moderate vs. Above Severe, and (3) Below Severe vs. Critical. The performance of these three binary models was evaluated using AUC values 0.883, 0.879, and, 0.887, respectively. Based on results for each of the three predictive models, we developed web-based nomograms for clinical use (http://statgen.snu.ac.kr/software/nomogramDaeguCovid/). Conclusions: We successfully developed web-based nomograms predicting the maximum severity. These nomograms are expected to help plan an effective treatment for each patient in the clinical field.

A Nomogram-Based Study: A Way Forward to Predict the Anxiety Status in Medical Staff During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Background and Objective: Anxiety influences job burnout and health. This study aimed to establish a nomogram to predict the anxiety status of medical staff during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Methods: A total of 600 medical members were randomized 7:3 and divided into training and validation sets. The data was collected using a questionnaire. Logistic regression analysis and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were applied to investigate the risk factors for anxiety. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated to establish a nomogram. Results: Participation time (OR=44.28, 95% CI=13.13~149.32), rest time (OR=38.50, 95% CI=10.43~142.19), epidemic prevention area (OR=10.16, 95% CI=3.51~29.40), epidemic prevention equipment (OR=15.24, 95% CI=5.73~40.55), family support (OR=9.63, 95% CI=3.55~26.11), colleague infection (OR=6.25, 95% CI=2.18~19.11), and gender (OR=3.30, 95% CI=1.15~9.47) were the independent risk factors (P<0.05) for anxiety in medical staff. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the training and validation sets were 0.987 and 0.946, respectively. The decision curve's net benefit shows the nomogram's clinical utility. Conclusion: The nomogram established in this study exhibited an excellent ability to predict anxiety status with sufficient discriminatory power and calibration. Our findings provide a protocol for predicting and identifying anxiety status in medical staff during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Construction of a nomogram for predicting COVID-19 in-hospital mortality: A machine learning analysis.

Background and objectives: We aim to verify the use of ML algorithms to predict patient outcome using a relatively small dataset and to create a nomogram to assess in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19. Methods: A database of 200 COVID-19 patients admitted to the Clinical Hospital of State University of Campinas (UNICAMP) was used in this analysis. Patient features were divided into three categories: clinical, chest abnormalities, and body composition characteristics acquired by computerized tomography. These features were evaluated independently and combined to predict patient outcomes. To minimize performance fluctuations due to low sample number, reduce possible bias related to outliers, and evaluate the uncertainties generated by the small dataset, we developed a shuffling technique, a modified version of the Monte Carlo Cross Validation, creating several subgroups for training the algorithm and complementary testing subgroups. The following ML algorithms were tested: random forest, boosted decision trees, logistic regression, support vector machines, and neural networks. Performance was evaluated by analyzing Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The importance of each feature in the determination of the outcome predictability was also studied and a nomogram was created based on the most important features selected by the exclusion test. Results: Among the different sets of features, clinical variables age, lymphocyte number and weight were the most valuable features for prognosis prediction. However, we observed that skeletal muscle radiodensity and presence of pleural effusion were also important for outcome determination. Integrating these independent predictors was successfully developed to accurately predict mortality in COVID-19 in hospital patients. A nomogram based on these five features was created to predict COVID-19 mortality in hospitalized patients. The area under the ROC curve was 0.86 ± 0.04. Conclusion: ML algorithms can be reliable for the prediction of COVID-19-related in-hospital mortality, even when using a relatively small dataset. The success of ML techniques in smaller datasets broadens the applicability of these methods in several problems in the medical area. In addition, feature importance analysis allowed us to determine the most important variables for the prediction tasks resulting in a nomogram with good accuracy and clinical utility in predicting COVID-19 in-hospital mortality.

An early novel prognostic model for predicting 80-day survival of patients with COVID-19.

The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had an unprecedented impact worldwide, and it is of great significance to predict the prognosis of patients for guiding clinical management. This study aimed to construct a nomogram to predict the prognosis of COVID-19 patients. Clinical records and laboratory results were retrospectively reviewed for 331 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from Huangshi Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) (Infectious Disease Hospital) and Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University. All COVID-19 patients were followed up for 80 days, and the primary outcome was defined as patient death. Cases were randomly divided into training (n=199) and validation (n=132) groups. Based on baseline data, we used statistically significant prognostic factors to construct a nomogram and assessed its performance. The patients were divided into Death (n=23) and Survival (n=308) groups. Analysis of clinical characteristics showed that these patients presented with fever (n=271, 81.9%), diarrhea (n=20, 6.0%) and had comorbidities (n=89, 26.9.0%). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age, UREA and LDH were independent risk factors for predicting 80-day survival of COVID-19 patients. We constructed a qualitative nomogram with high C-indexes (0.933 and 0.894 in the training and validation groups, respectively). The calibration curve for 80-day survival showed optimal agreement between the predicted and actual outcomes. Decision curve analysis revealed the high clinical net benefit of the nomogram. Overall, our nomogram could effectively predict the 80-day survival of COVID-19 patients and hence assist in providing optimal treatment and decreasing mortality rates.

Exploiting an early warning Nomogram for predicting the risk of ICU admission in patients with COVID-19: a multi-center study in China.

BACKGROUND: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global public health emergency. Here, we developed and validated a practical model based on the data from a multi-center cohort in China for early identification and prediction of which patients will be admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: Data of 1087 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were collected from 49 sites between January 2 and February 28, 2020, in Sichuan and Wuhan. Patients were randomly categorized into the training and validation cohorts (7:3). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and logistic regression analyzes were used to develop the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated for the C-index, calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. Further, the nomogram was externally validated in a different cohort. RESULTS: The individualized prediction nomogram included 6 predictors: age, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, fever, and chronic kidney disease. The model demonstrated a high discriminative ability in the training cohort (C-index = 0.829), which was confirmed in the external validation cohort (C-index = 0.776). In addition, the calibration plots confirmed good concordance for predicting the risk of ICU admission. Decision curve analysis revealed that the prediction nomogram was clinically useful. CONCLUSION: We established an early prediction model incorporating clinical characteristics that could be quickly obtained on hospital admission, even in community health centers. This model can be conveniently used to predict the individual risk for ICU admission of patients with COVID-19 and optimize the use of limited resources.

Construction and Validation of Mortality Risk Nomograph Model for Severe/Critical Patients with COVID-19.

Objective: A nomograph model of mortality risk for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was established and validated. Methods: We collected the clinical medical records of patients with severe/critical COVID-19 admitted to the eastern campus of Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from January 2020 to May 2020 and to the north campus of Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai JiaoTong University School of Medicine, from April 2022 to June 2022. We assigned 254 patients to the former group, which served as the training set, and 113 patients were assigned to the latter group, which served as the validation set. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariable logistic regression were used to select the variables and build the mortality risk prediction model. Results: The nomogram model was constructed with four risk factors for patient mortality following severe/critical COVID-19 (≥3 basic diseases, APACHE II score, urea nitrogen (Urea), and lactic acid (Lac)) and two protective factors (percentage of lymphocyte (L%) and neutrophil-to-platelets ratio (NPR)). The area under the curve (AUC) of the training set was 0.880 (95% confidence interval (95%CI), 0.837~0.923) and the AUC of the validation set was 0.814 (95%CI, 0.705~0.923). The decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the nomogram model had high clinical value. Conclusion: The nomogram model for predicting the death risk of patients with severe/critical COVID-19 showed good prediction performance, and may be helpful in making appropriate clinical decisions for high-risk patients.